Can our modern society avoid crisis? It seems to me that the only way we avoid crisis is to identify a growing problem and address it before it grows further.
In a modern society with a big problem this means convincing enough people that the problem, if unattended, will turn into a crisis and that as a crisis it will cost much more to deal with than addressing the problem now.
Once enough people are convinced, politicians should wake up to the fact that their elections/re-election will depend on at least appearing to be on board. They will begin to speak about the problem as if they had been the drivers of it all along.
But if the problem is too big, too complicated, too remote, or too far into the future, can we do all of that before the problem turns into a crisis?
I’m not so sure.
Climate change is obviously today’s best example of this point. It has been a problem for many years, identified and talked about. That it will become a crisis if unattended is now beyond question. That it will cost more the longer we wait is now beyond question. People are worried. It will be an election issue. And most, if not all of the political parties are talking about it like they were the discoverers of the problem and pretending that they are actually leading the country.
The Liberals, with Stephane Dion at the helm, are now talking about climate change as if it is the greatest threat to modern civilization (in fact it’s one of two, but so far few of us are yet talking about Peak Oil), and portraying themselves as the only possibility for avoiding a crisis. To their credit, they did negotiate and sign the Kyoto protocol. But I would hope that the voters don’t forget that it was the Liberals who signed the treaty and then, not only did nothing about it but in fact encouraged the opposite by introducing policy which would grow emissions, subsidies to the Tar Sands projects being the obvious example.
The NDP, to their credit, have been talking about climate change for some years and been consistent in their criticism that nothing was being done. Unfortunately, they too supported policies which go against what is needed, such as hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to Ford and GM to support plants to build SUV’s. When push came to shove, those jobs (short term as they turned out to be) were more important than the climate because they were more immediate and there were more votes to be had.
The Conservatives. Well, I don’t know what to say. Are their heads buried in the tar sands or stuck somewhere else?
And where does that leave the Green Party? That would be the party that was talking about climate change before the rest, but unfortunately for us, before anyone was paying attention. We were Chicken Little, talking about a problem that no one paid attention to because the crisis was not yet looming.
So, now that everyone is talking about climate change, let’s stretch our imaginations to the next looming crisis that only a small but growing group of people, and virtually none of our politicians, are talking about. Peak Oil.
Mark your calendars. The Green Party will be talking about this before too long. Some of us have already started.
Is it a vote winner? Not yet, I can assure you. I am still Chicken Little.
As media awareness grows, the NDP and the Bloc will jump on board. The Liberals will need to see polls showing them that there are votes to be had. And finally the Conservatives. What will it take for them to wake up? I refuse to speculate any more.
Climate Change and Peak Oil. The perfect storm.
