For those of you that have read any of my articles on Peak Oil, you’ll know that I am a pretty strong believer in the global oil production decline and all of the dire predictions of economic consequences that will result, and my radar goes beep every time I see a related story in the main stream media. Actually, these stories are becoming harder to miss.
For example, from the Wall Street Journal recently;
“The virtual collapse at Cantarell– the world’s second-biggest oil field in terms of output at the start of last year– is unfolding much faster than projections from Mexico’s state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Cantarell’s daily output fell to 1.5 million barrels in December compared to 1.99 million barrels in January, according to figures from the Mexican Energy Ministry.
Mexico made up for some of the field’s decline. Mexico’s overall oil output fell to just below three million barrels a day in December, down from almost 3.4 million barrels at the start of the year. It marked Mexico’s lowest rate of oil output since 2000….
The field’s decline is expected to continue, if not worsen, this year, according to most estimates.”
Mexico had been the world’s fifth biggest oil producer in 2005. When Ghawar (the world’s biggest field, accounting for half of Saudi Arabia’s total oil production capacity) follows Cantarell, people will take notice.
And while I’m mentioning the Saudis, how can it be that both (1) “the present level of oil prices is adequate in our view,” as outgoing U.S. Ambassador Turki Al-Faisal declared on Monday, and (2) the Saudis are continually implementing even bigger cuts in production, as we learned on recently?
If Mexico can’t, Saudi Arabia won’t, and the U.S. and China remain thirsty, I still don’t see how oil below $50 a barrel could hold.
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What people don’t seem to understand is that Peak Oil won’t be some smooth seamless transition but a total catastrophe. Some oil fields will dwindle slowly but others will tank in a relatively short period and no amount of pumping, water/steam/co2 injection, or scrubbing will rejuvenate the oil fields.
Natural Gas is even more precarious as the depletions always happen drastically with little warning. Pressure drops buy 30% a month for a couple of months and kaput, capacity is lost before new can be found or new pipelines built.
Mexico is in decline, Canada is in decline, the north sea is in serious decline. The scariest thing is it’s all the friendliest oil that is in the worst decline. The Ghawar fields will be next as so much water has been pumped into these fields to force out deep oil, most wells pump 2/3 water.
This transition will not be smooth or slow, prices will grow more and more erratic, the U.S. will demand we pump faster and Nafta does not allow us to hoard for Canada’s future. We as individuals and as a nation are not ready. The fear of energy shortages will go a long way to sabotage concerns about greenhouse gases as people will worry about tomorrow rather than next week.
We need action now before the fear sets in and destroys our chances of getting it right!
Have a look at the article embedded in my post on Ethanol.
http://greenassassinbrigade.blogspot.com/2007/02/ethanol-must-read-article.html“>http://greenassassinbrigade.blogspot.com/2007/02/ethanol-must-read-article.html