There is much controversy in the papers and blogsphere over the deal announced between Elizabeth May and Stephane Dion to not run a candidate in each others riding. After consideration, I like this deal. I can see the pros and cons of this, depending on which party you support, I think there is much to criticize about Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party, but generally I think that this deal is good for everyone but the Conservatives.
If you’re Liberal?: While it’s true that there may be some alientated voters in Central Nova who only ever vote Liberal and now are left wondering what to do, my prediction is that they are very far from voting Conservative and will likely migrate to the Greens or the NDP or some unknown independent candidate. I assume that for true Liberals, besting the Conservatives usually would win over not voting in protest, so they would likely lend their vote to the candidate most likely to do so. The Green Party will be playing up the results in London North Centre to make sure those votes go to Elizabeth. My prediction is that the majority of those Liberal votes will go to Elizabeth. Definately those who support Dion. Those that don’t support Dion could go to the NDP.
If you’re NDP?: The combined Liberal + Green votes in the last election would still be third place in Central Nova, so the NDP will be trying to play their trump card that they are the ones to support in order to beat the Conservatives, the Greens are a flash in the pan, Greens are right wing idealogues just like the Cons, yadda, yadda. This would be a repeat of the tactic in London North Centre, where Elizabeth placed second ahead of the NDP candidate in third place. The Green Party will of course counter this with the fact that Elizabeth is a party leader and will gain national recognition as their MP. Should the Liberals win the election, the riding will be looked upon more favourably with Elizabeth May in the seat than Peter McKay or an NDP candidate. I predict that more voters will leave the NDP to support Elizabeth than will migrate from the Libs to the NDP. Their vote count will likely decrease.
If you’re Conservative?: For Conservatives that support Stephen Harper, they may be curious how things will go given one less strong competitor, but I doubt they are taking things seriously despite the London North Centre results. I suspect that they are confident that the riding is McKay’s till he give it up, and that Elizabeth is committing a political blunder by running in this riding at all.
If you’re Progressive Conservative?: Well, here’s where the fun speculation lies! How many of Peter McKay’s supporters are former Progressive Conservatives who could not bring themselves to vote Liberal or NDP despite being pissed at McKay selling out their party? How many of these will feel more comfortable voting for Elizabeth? And how many want to hold their nose and vote for McKay in order to have some balance against Harper in cabinet? I think there are a much larger number of former PC voters who will swing to Elizabeth than the Conservatives are counting on.
If you’re Green?: There is no such thing as a safe Green seat, and Elizabeth presents a more serious Green candidate than what Central Nova is accustomed to, so there may be Greens that didn’t bother to vote or voted “strategically.” Despite what the papers say, advising Elizabeth to go to BC or Guelph or any of the handful of ridings where the Greens did well in the past, it is an uphill battle. But Elizabeth proved she could do it in London North Centre.
In the end, the votes will fall where they may, and I predict a very tight three way race that will be at the top of the “ridings to watch” list. I’m hopeful that the voters of Central Nova will see the merit in electing the leader of Canada’s fourth national party over a silenced cabinet minister in the Harper dictatorship.
There is, of course, the consideration of why Stephane Dion is doing this? (Elizabeth May’s quid pro quo is symbolic as he has his riding locked in any case.) Consider this. All he is giving up is party funding of $1.79 x 10000 votes, or approximately $18,000 per year for the Liberal Party, from a riding that he had no chance to win anyway and was looking at a safe Conservative seat or at best an NDP upset. What does he gain? Assuming Elizabeth can pull off the win, he gains a very strong ally on the environmental issue if the Conservatives win the election, and a potential coalition partner if the Liberals have the right numbers and Elizabeth has a caucus with a handful of other Green MP’s.
The only downside for Dion in this decision, besides the funding, comes if Elizabeth wins the seat and he has enough seats for a minority government without the Green’s support. In that case, we shall quickly learn exactly where the Liberal and Green platforms don’t reconcile.
Lastly, there is an important messages in this that has been lost.
I think this clearly shows an ability for the Greens and Liberals to work together in a coalition and there are several things are going to happen in future to make this important.
- Someone in the media will wake upand do the math on the probability of majority governments in Canada. I mean the real probability, not just >40% in the polls. To get a majority you need >50% of the seats, and even with our archaic FPTP system this is nigh on impossible with the strength of regional parties.
- Electoral Reform. At some point the Liberals will do the above math and realize that their future lies in electoral reform and fostering coalition governments. Perhaps Stephane Dion already has.
- Our political establishment and the media will realize that cooperation in the interest of the Canadian voter is what the Canadian voter wants most. This will happen more quickly if the voters of Central Nova reward for that behaviour.
This ability to work together on common goals will be a major selling feature for both the Liberals and the Greens.
